CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z MON 06/12 - 06Z TUE 07/12 2004
ISSUED: 06/12 00:06Z
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

General thunderstorms are forecast across the western Mediterranean, Italy and the Adriatic sea.

SYNOPSIS

Monday at 06Z... low pressure at mid- and upper levels is centered over northern Morocco. A bridge of high pressure flanks this system to the north over much of west-central and central Europe. A deep trough over Poland digs southeastward and is expected over the northwestern Black Sea on Tuesday morning.

DISCUSSION

...western Mediterranean, Italy, Adriatic...
Scattered storms are expected in the slightly unstable air-mass over the area. High low-level moisture and low LFC heights seem favorable for a few waterspouts to form. However, allover threat of severe storms seems to be low in the low-shear/low-CAPE environment.

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